I remembered when gambling stocks in Macau were all the…
Here’s a situation that happened to me:
I was holding JQ diamonds, under the gun. Wanted to get some action, so I bet 3 BB (Big Blinds). Everyone folds to the guy before dealer, who raises to 9 BB’s. Everyone folds, I call.
Flop – A, 8, 3; A and the 8 giving me a potential flush draw. I check, he bets half the pot (about 7 big blinds) I call.
Turn comes and it’s another diamond, so I make the flush. At the turn I bet around 1/3 – 1/2 of the pot, and the guy calls.
River shows an 8. I overbet the pot by 12%, the guy raises me all in (I didn’t have much left) and I call.
I show my flush, he shows his Ace’s full house.
What!?!?!? Where did it go wrong?
I knew he had at least an Ace pair, and I wanted to get those aces to call me in the river. But by the time he called me all in, I could have saved the remaining money. Here’s my mistake:
Preflop: He three bets me. At this point I should have put his cards to be at least pairs, AQ, AK, KK, AA. These are all very real possibilities.
Flop: Pretty standard.
Turn: Pretty much I am the favorite to win, so I start value betting. The only thing that can beat me is two other diamonds with one of them being king. Because he calls, pretty much anything lower than KK’s should have folded by now. So two pairs and sets can be possible, but something I didn’t consider.
River: The card that killed me. I was too excited and so I over bet the pot, hoping someone with ace pair, sets, two pairs call me. But this is foolish on my part – by betting so much, I’ve pretty much revealed to my opponent that I either had the flush or was bluffing. It’s unlikely the latter because I would have folded during the flop or at least raised. In this case, I would have scared away even two pairs. Given that I wasn’t familiar with the opponent, I should have betted 50% of the pot instead. The opponent on the other hand had the nuts. He saw my over bet and knew I had either a flush or a bluff. Of course since he had the strongest hand, he just shoves all in since I didn’t had much left. Logically though, this also makes sense. Bluffs would fold, and strong hands like mine would call. By this time, I really should have considered Aces given the information from preflop, turn, and raising me all in at the river. He might think I was bluffing and decided to bluff me back by going all in (extremely unlikely; with the way we were playing, both of us must have had something, AND I didn’t had many chips left so the probability of me calling was very high; had I thought about it I could have folded), plus if he had weak cards he’d probably would have folded them at the turn and most likely at the river.
What do you guys think about my analysis? Do you have other poker analysis you want to share? Comment below.